Weather Forecast Update

A couple of days ago I looked at the Jersey Weather forecast, for Jersey for today, 48 hours in advance.  The differences from a number of weather sites were pretty significant.  Ranging from conditions which would have been fairly manageable for intermediate level kayakers to ones where it would have been difficult to keep the kayak on the roof of the car.
As would be expected those forecasts, which were at the upper end of the scale are indicating a significant reduction in the wind speed, whereas the Jersey Met forecast, which I find is usually the most accurate is indicating an increase as the day progresses.
I suppose the main thing to take away from this is to check the forecasts regularly, be prepared to modify your plans as the day approaches and keep an eye on any changing weather during the course of the day.

Weather forecast
Two days ago Weather Online was forecasting SW Force 7 gusting 56 mph. Today SE F5 with gusts of 37 mph. A significant reduction in the gusts.
There is a significant difference with Magic Seaweed. In particular in relation to wave height. 2 days ago 5.1 metres was forecast for 09.00 today. Today’s forecast for the same time is 1.1 metres. A difference in 4 metres in wave height would have a significant impact on kayaking conditions.
Weather forecast
Two days ago XC Weather was forecasting winds up to 45 mph, whereas today the maximum day time wind speed is 29 mph.
Weather forecast
Jersey Met was giving Southerly F4 two days ago but the forecast from this morning certainly shows an increasing wind speed. Still a F4 to start with but F7, for a while, by early afternoon.

Weather Forecast Issues

When we are considering potential kayaking trips we always keep at least one eye on the weather forecast, wondering whether we are going to get that window in the weather to allow us to do that paddle we have been thinking about for quite some time.
We are fortunate in that we are able to access a variety of forecasts, how often have you heard people say “I didn’t like that forecast so I will look for a better one”, normally they are joking but looking at the forecast for the next 48 hours in Jersey there might be some truth in that statement.
Looking at the variety of forecasts available it seems like we can expect almost anything to hit the Island.  I have taken screen shots of a number of forecasts, which were published around 09.00 this morning.

Weather Forecast
Weather Online is giving SW Force 7 with gusts to 56 mph. Not ideal for any water based activity.
Weather forecast
Magic Seaweed is similar, forecasting winds up to 57 mph and just to make matters more interesting a wave height of 5.9 metres around lunch time.
Metcheck is a little less windy but the interesting thing is that the mean wind speed is above the gusts, not the other way around, as you would expect. 39 mph but gust 31 mph. This is 20 mph less than Magic Seaweed.
Weather forecast.
I normally find XC weather pretty accurate and the forecast for Friday is 45 mph. Pretty blowy but not as windy as some of the other forecasts.
Weather forecast
Windfinder is giving 39 gusting 47 but in contrast to the other forecasts this is in knots as opposed to mph. So this forecast is giving winds of up to 54 mph.
Weather Forecast
Weather.com is predicting winds of between 25 and 35 mph from the SSW. These are pretty much the most conservative wind speeds of any of the forecasts so far.
Wunderground is giving a maximum wind speed of 27 mph. Blowy but not disastrous.
Weather forecast
Meteox is giving SW Force 8, which translates into wind gusts of 40 mph.
Weather Forecast
The Jersey Met forecast, which I normally use is showing Force 4 from the south. Nothing to really worry about.

So we have a complete range of forecasts, with one we would still be able to run a kayaking session for relatively inexperienced paddlers whereas with some others we would be tying down the garden furniture and heading out to sea would be the last thing on our mind.
This shows the need to check forecasts on a regular basis as well as maintaining a close eye on conditions whilst on the water.
It will be interesting to see what eventually arrives on Friday morning.